The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its latest monthly “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates” (WASDE) report projected an increase in global cotton production, consumption and trade for the 2025-26 marketing year, although ending stocks are expected to tighten.
Global cotton production is forecast to rise by more than 1 million 480-pound bales, reflecting gains in China, India and Australia that more than offset declines in Turkey, Mexico and several West African nations.
World cotton consumption is raised by about 850,000 bales, driven mainly by increased use in China and Vietnam, partially offset by a contraction in Turkey.
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Global cotton trade is also nudged upward by just over 100,000 bales, with higher exports projected for India and Australia, offset by lower shipments from some West African producers.
Despite the higher production and trade outlook, global beginning stocks for 2025-26 are revised downward by nearly 1 million bales on stronger consumption in China in the 2024-25 season. Ending stocks for 2025-26 are cut by almost 800,000 bales to around 73.1 million bales, the lowest in four years.
For the U.S., the cotton crop for 2025-26 is projected at 13.2 million bales—10,000 bales higher than the previous month’s estimate—with the average yield lowered by one pound per harvested acre to 861 pounds. Export, consumption and ending stock forecasts remain unchanged, leaving the U.S. stocks‐to‐use ratio just above 26%.
Market watchers say the combination of higher global supplies and tighter stocks is likely to keep cotton prices under pressure unless demand strengthens or weather issues curtail output.
