EBRD Raises Türkiye’s 2025 Growth Forecast to 3.1%

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development expects Turkiye’s economy to grow by 3.1% in 2025, raising its earlier forecast of 2.8% made in May. Growth is projected to edge up further to 3.5% in 2026, unchanged from the previous outlook, according to the Bank’s latest Regional Economic Prospects report.

The EBRD said overall growth across its regions—excluding six economies in sub-Saharan Africa and Iraq—is expected to slow to 3.1% in 2025 from stronger-than-anticipated performances in the first half of the year, before picking up to 3.3% in 2026. Economies in the Bank’s coverage area continue to face pressures from global geopolitical tensions, mounting competition from China in export markets and limited fiscal room for stimulus.

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For Turkiye, volatile investor sentiment and tighter global financing conditions remain key downside risks. However, easing tensions in Syria and the Caucasus and closer cooperation with the European Union could help the country leverage its established advantages in construction, logistics and defence, the report noted.

The EBRD invested a record €2.6 billion (around $3.05 billion) in Turkiye in 2024, reflecting strong private-sector demand for green projects and ongoing support for regions impacted by the February 2023 earthquakes. The Bank’s cumulative investment in the country has surpassed €22.4 billion (about $26.3 billion), with a current portfolio of roughly €8 billion ($9.39 billion).