The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has revised its 2024–25 cotton production forecast upward to 301.15 lakh bales, despite regional output imbalances and concerns over falling consumption and exports. The revised figure marks an increase from April’s projection of 291.35 lakh bales but remains well below last season’s output of 327.45 lakh bales.
Regionally, the shift reflects a southward tilt. While northern production is expected to plummet to 28.80 lakh bales from 45.62 lakh, and central India is projected to produce 180 lakh bales (down from 202.21 lakh), southern India is poised to grow to 86.50 lakh bales—up from 73.85 lakh bales a year earlier.
CAI anticipates domestic cotton consumption to fall to 305 lakh bales, down from 313 lakh in 2023–24. Exports, too, are set to decline sharply to 17 lakh bales, compared to 28.36 lakh bales last year. In contrast, cotton imports are expected to surge by more than 150%, reaching 39 lakh bales versus 15.20 lakh bales previously. Stock at the end of the season is projected at 48.34 lakh bales, a significant jump from 30.19 lakh.
Beyond supply figures, CAI raised red flags over rising Minimum Support Prices (MSP), warning they risk eroding India’s global price competitiveness. The association called for urgent policy reforms, including a revamp of the Cotton Corporation of India’s (CCI) sales strategy and the possible introduction of a Bhavantar-style scheme to cushion growers without distorting market prices.
The update comes as India’s cotton sector navigates volatile global demand, fluctuating weather patterns, and growing concern over supply chain resilience. CAI’s call for reforms underscores the mounting pressure on policymakers to recalibrate incentives amid shifting market fundamentals.
