U.S. retail apparel prices have continued to rise in recent months, standing out as a pocket of persistent inflation even as headline consumer price growth appears to cool, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Apparel prices increased 0.2% on an unadjusted basis in the 12-month period ending in November. While the annual gain remains modest, month-to-month data tell a more pronounced story. Seasonally adjusted apparel prices jumped 0.7% in September, the most recent monthly reading published by the BLS, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase since June. By comparison, prices for all goods excluding food and fuel rose just 0.2% over the same period, underscoring apparel’s stronger upward momentum.
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The trend contrasts with broader inflation signals that have dominated media coverage in recent weeks. Headline inflation slowed to 2.7% on an unadjusted year-on-year basis in November, reinforcing expectations that price pressures across the U.S. economy are easing. However, economists have cautioned that the latest CPI figures may not fully reflect underlying inflation dynamics.
The Wall Street Journal reported that a technical adjustment used by the BLS to address data collection disruptions during the recent U.S. government shutdown may have biased the November CPI reading downward, potentially understating inflation. The shutdown delayed and complicated price collection in several categories, raising concerns about data completeness and accuracy.
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Robert Antoshak, a longtime retail and apparel industry analyst, echoed those concerns, warning against drawing firm conclusions from the latest inflation figures. He noted that revisions to the CPI series are likely as the government works through reporting backlogs created by the shutdown. “We should expect some revisions in the CPI series as the government catches up on its reporting after the government shutdown,” Antoshak said, adding that it would be premature to declare a clear inflation trend based on limited data.
Antoshak said he remains cautious about passing judgment on inflation until more comprehensive data become available for the fourth quarter, a critical period for consumer spending and retail pricing. Q4 data typically captures holiday demand patterns, promotional activity and inventory adjustments that can significantly influence price behavior, particularly in apparel.
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Industry analysts say clothing prices are often more sensitive to supply-chain costs, wage pressures and tariff exposure than other consumer goods. While some retailers have relied on discounting to attract cost-conscious shoppers, others have attempted to protect margins by holding prices steady or pushing selective increases, especially in premium and branded segments.
With apparel prices showing sustained monthly gains, economists and policymakers are watching closely to see whether this trend spills over into other discretionary categories. The Federal Reserve, which has signaled a data-dependent approach to future interest-rate decisions, is expected to scrutinize forthcoming CPI revisions and December inflation data before adjusting its policy stance.
For now, the divergence between cooling headline inflation and firmer apparel prices highlights the uneven nature of the U.S. inflation landscape. As Antoshak and other analysts caution, clearer signals are likely to emerge only after revised CPI data and full fourth-quarter numbers provide a more complete picture of pricing pressures across the economy.
