Global economic growth is expected to lose momentum in 2026, but a strong performance by emerging and resource-rich economies is reshaping the global growth map and highlighting a widening divergence between regions.
According to projections based on data from the International Monetary Fund, global GDP growth is forecast to ease to 3.1% in 2026 from 3.4% in 2025, as geopolitical tensions, inflation and trade disruptions weigh on activity. More than 100 economies have seen their outlook downgraded, underlining the fragile and uncertain environment.
Despite the slowdown, the global economy is increasingly defined by a two-speed pattern, where a cluster of emerging economies—particularly in Africa—continues to expand rapidly, driven by commodities, infrastructure investment and export growth.
Among the standout performers, Guyana is projected to grow by 16.2% in 2026, supported by booming offshore oil production and large-scale infrastructure development linked to energy revenues.
Africa dominates the next tier of high-growth economies. Ethiopia is expected to expand by 9.2%, driven by strong exports of coffee and gold alongside ongoing public infrastructure investment. Guinea is forecast to grow by 8.7%, largely due to the Simandou iron ore project, one of the world’s largest untapped mining developments.
Other African economies are also maintaining robust momentum. Rwanda is projected to grow above 7%, supported by services expansion, tourism recovery and construction activity. Côte d’Ivoire is expected to post growth above 6.5%, driven by cocoa exports, infrastructure spending and a diversified agricultural base. Uganda is forecast to grow above 6%, supported by energy investments and early-stage oil production developments.
This concentration of high growth in Africa reflects a broader structural shift. Resource extraction, combined with rising domestic demand and infrastructure upgrades, is positioning the continent as a more prominent player in global trade and investment flows.
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In Asia, growth remains comparatively strong but more balanced. Vietnam is expected to expand by 7.1%, benefiting from export manufacturing and continued inflows of foreign direct investment as companies diversify supply chains. Bhutan is forecast to grow by 7.5%, supported by hydropower exports, tourism recovery and capital investment.
The broader pattern points to a fragmentation of global growth, where economic expansion is increasingly concentrated in countries with either strong commodity bases or competitive export sectors. This marks a departure from the more synchronised global growth cycles seen in previous decades.
At the same time, parts of the global economy are facing significant headwinds. Several Middle Eastern economies, including Iran and Iraq, are expected to contract due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and volatility in energy markets. These disruptions are contributing to wider uncertainty in global trade and investment.
Forecasting itself has become more complex, with recent years demonstrating how quickly economic conditions can shift. While around 80 economies have seen upward revisions to their growth outlook, the overall picture remains uneven, with gains concentrated in select regions.
For Bangladesh, the implications are relatively limited but still relevant. The country’s textile and apparel sector—one of the largest in the world—could benefit marginally from ongoing supply chain diversification as global brands continue to rebalance sourcing strategies. However, intensifying competition from faster-growing export economies, particularly in Asia, remains a key challenge.
Overall, the 2026 outlook underscores a fundamental shift in the global economy. Slower aggregate growth masks a deeper transformation, where emerging and frontier markets—especially in Africa—are becoming central drivers of expansion, reshaping trade patterns and investment priorities in the years ahead.
