Bangladesh’s largest supplier of liquefied natural gas has warned it may deliver only half of its contracted cargoes in 2026, deepening an energy crunch that has already tripled the country’s gas subsidy bill and forced state buyers into an expensive scramble for spot-market fuel.
QatarEnergy told Petrobangla subsidiary Rupantarita Prakritik Gas Company Limited in an email earlier this month that it expects to supply at best 20 of the 40 LNG cargoes originally scheduled for 2026, Energy Secretary Mohammad Saiful Islam has confirmed. The shortfall, equal to roughly a third of Bangladesh’s full-year import plan of 115 cargoes, could persist for three to five years, the company indicated, without specifying when normal volumes might resume. Read Here
The retreat traces back to the US-Iran war that broke out on February 28 and triggered a near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the corridor through which roughly a fifth of the world’s LNG and oil moves. Iranian strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex knocked out two of the country’s 14 liquefaction trains and one gas-to-liquids unit, stripping away about 17% of national export capacity. QatarEnergy invoked force majeure on March 2, becoming the first of Bangladesh’s long-term suppliers to do so; Oman’s OQT and US-based Excelerate Energy followed within days.
A fresh setback arrived on June 22, when an explosion at Ras Laffan killed 13 people and injured dozens, even after a ceasefire between Washington and Tehran took effect on June 17. Officials in Dhaka said the blast could push back the resumption of full Qatari output further still, compounding a crisis that has already strained public finances.
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Islam said Bangladesh is negotiating directly with Doha and will press to recover as much of the contracted volume as possible. “We are in contact with QatarEnergy to discuss the issue,” he said, adding that the supplier has signalled the reduced-supply pattern could extend into 2027 and beyond. Petrobangla has set an internal target of securing at least 80% of the originally committed cargoes if full restoration proves unworkable, according to officials at the state gas company who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The financial toll is already substantial. Bangladesh’s LNG subsidy allocation for the current fiscal year has swollen to roughly Tk16,600 crore, nearly triple the original Tk6,000 crore budgeted, as state buyers turn to spot cargoes priced as high as $28 per million British thermal units — more than double the $9-to-$11 range typical of long-term contracts. Petrobangla finance director AKM Mizanur Rahman said the war alone has added an estimated Tk10,600 crore in costs since long-term suppliers began invoking force majeure in March.
Compounding the squeeze, traders OQ Trading and Excelerate Gas Marketing have kept their own force majeure declarations in place even after Hormuz reopened to shipping, despite none of their own production facilities having come under attack. Islam questioned the justification, noting both companies are resellers rather than producers and that their contracts permit loading from ports outside Qatar. Petrobangla has formed a five-member committee, led by Energy Division Joint Secretary Hayat Md Feroze, to review force majeure clauses across both long-term and short-term contracts and determine whether agreements can be renegotiated or whether alternative sourcing routes exist. The panel has been given seven days to report its findings and held its first session this week.
Petrobangla data show QatarEnergy delivered just eight cargoes between January and early March before the disruptions began, with nine more cargoes due between April and June subsequently placed under force majeure. Even an optimistic resumption from August could leave Bangladesh receiving only around 12 of the 18 cargoes scheduled for the back half of the year.
To cushion the blow, the Energy Division is pursuing short-term supply deals outside the Middle East, with Australia, Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Angola, Nigeria and Algeria under consideration. Islam said the strategy is intended to reduce price volatility relative to spot purchases while diversifying away from Gulf dependence; Bangladesh’s existing energy memorandum with Malaysia is seen as a possible entry point. Bangladesh’s two floating regasification terminals are already running near full capacity, limiting how quickly any new volumes — wherever they are sourced — could be absorbed into the domestic gas network.