The U.S. Department of Agriculture trimmed its forecast for global cotton production in the 2026/27 season by more than 470,000 bales to 117.48 million bales, citing smaller crops in India, Turkey, Argentina and the United States, according to its November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.
The cut, published on Nov. 10, more than offset larger harvests projected for Australia and China, and it leaves world output below the 117.95 million bales forecast a month earlier.
India’s crop was lowered by half a million bales to 23.5 million, while Turkey’s fell to 2.05 million bales from 2.40 million. Australia’s estimate rose to 3.5 million bales from 3.0 million, and China’s gained half a million bales to 34 million.
The agency also reduced global consumption by about 335,000 bales to 122.7 million, driven mainly by weaker demand in Bangladesh and the United States. Bangladesh’s mill use was cut by 200,000 bales to 7.4 million, and its imports were lowered by the same amount to 7.2 million. Turkey’s imports, by contrast, were raised by 300,000 bales to 5.3 million.
Even so, projected demand still exceeds production by roughly 5.3 million bales, a gap that will draw down inventories. Global ending stocks were lowered by just over 110,000 bales to 70.57 million, compared with 75.64 million at the start of the season.
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World trade was nudged higher, with exports raised by 110,000 bales to 44.82 million as higher shipments from Cote d’Ivoire and Egypt outweighed a reduction for Kyrgyzstan.
In the United States, production was cut by 267,000 bales to 13.18 million after the national average yield fell 2% to 775 pounds per harvested acre. Upland cotton in the Southwest accounted for 250,000 bales of the reduction, as the regional yield was lowered by 5%.
U.S. mill use was reduced by 100,000 bales to 1.4 million bales, reflecting a consumption pace running behind last year’s already weak level. Ending stocks were lowered to 3.70 million bales, putting the stocks-to-use ratio at 27.0%, down from 27.5% last month. The season-average upland farm price was trimmed by one cent to 76 cents per pound.
For textile mills and garment makers across Asia, the smaller crop and lighter stocks point to a tighter supply picture, though weaker consumption forecasts may limit upward pressure on prices.
The USDA will publish its next WASDE report on Dec. 10, with revised estimates for cotton.