Bangladesh’s textile and apparel industry faces renewed supply-chain risks as a strong El Niño is expected to influence weather patterns across South Asia, raising concerns over cotton availability, raw-material prices and manufacturing continuity during the 2026/27 season.
The climate phenomenon, characterised by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, can alter rainfall and temperature patterns across major agricultural regions. Its effects vary geographically, however, and do not necessarily mean widespread drought across South Asia.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on October 14 that very strong El Niño conditions were likely to persist through October-December 2026. The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum projected below-normal rainfall across much of central and southern peninsular India and some parts of eastern South Asia, while normal to above-normal rainfall was expected in northwestern and parts of eastern and southern South Asia. Temperatures were forecast to remain normal to above normal across most of the region.
For Bangladesh, the potential impact extends beyond domestic weather conditions because its garment industry depends heavily on imported cotton and intermediate textile materials. According to the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service, domestic cotton production is forecast at just 153,000 bales in marketing year 2026/27, against projected imports of 7.7 million bales. Local production supplies less than 2% of the textile industry’s total cotton demand, leaving manufacturers highly exposed to international market fluctuations.
Developments in neighbouring cotton-producing countries could therefore have significant implications. India’s cotton production for 2026/27 is forecast at 24.5 million 480-pound bales, with yields expected to decline 2% because of below-normal rainfall forecasts through August and September, according to a USDA report published in August. Western and central India were identified as particularly vulnerable to extended dry spells.
The USDA also forecast Indian cotton mill consumption at 26.2 million bales, exceeding projected domestic production. Strong domestic demand and tighter crop prospects could limit exportable supplies and support higher lint prices, increasing procurement pressure on Bangladesh’s import-dependent spinning mills.
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Global market conditions offer limited assurance of a substantial supply cushion. The USDA‘s October 2026 market outlook projected global cotton production at 118 million bales in 2026/27, down 3.4% from the previous season. Meanwhile, worldwide mill consumption is expected to rise 1.9% to 123.1 million bales. Global ending stocks are forecast to decline by five million bales to their lowest level since 2011/12.
Although these projections do not establish that El Niño has already caused a cotton shortage, they indicate that weather-related production setbacks could tighten an increasingly constrained supply-demand balance. Prices will also depend on crop conditions in major producing countries, export policies, currency movements, freight costs and demand from textile mills.
Beyond raw materials, changing weather patterns could create additional operational challenges for Bangladesh’s textile industry. Spinning, dyeing, washing and finishing operations require reliable water and energy supplies. Reduced rainfall can intensify pressure on water resources, while excessive rainfall and flooding can disrupt transport networks, electricity infrastructure and the movement of raw materials and finished goods.
The WMO’s regional outlook highlights the importance of monitoring local weather conditions rather than assuming uniform climate impacts. Disruptions in one production hub could also affect manufacturers elsewhere through delayed yarn deliveries, fabric shortages and longer sourcing lead times.
Bangladesh’s vulnerability is compounded by existing operational constraints. The USDA’s April report cited energy shortages, logistics difficulties and economic uncertainty among the factors behind its forecast of lower cotton imports and reduced garment output in 2026/27.
For exporters, rising cotton prices could squeeze margins if international buyers do not accept corresponding increases in garment prices. Manufacturers may also need to secure supplies earlier, diversify sourcing origins and maintain additional inventories, increasing working-capital requirements.
Industry preparedness will depend on monitoring cotton markets, reviewing supplier concentration, improving water and energy resilience and coordinating procurement schedules with international buyers.
El Niño does not guarantee drought in Bangladesh or an immediate disruption to garment exports. However, with imported cotton underpinning almost all domestic consumption, sustained pressure on regional and global supplies could increase costs across the country’s textile value chain and challenge its export competitiveness.